Grocery Stores and Dollar Stores – Canary in everyday America’s mine?
By John Johnson on February 19, 2026
There are so many variables in a functioning economy that it is impossible to tell just exactly what is coming. Leading economic indicators were once reliable and significant declines in these key indicators over successive periods often predicted a recession.
We feel that relationship broke down in 2022 and, despite all the predictions by economists, the recession never materialized. Instead, in October of 2022, the stock market turned and grew steadily over the next three years. One reason for the breakdown of the common leading economic indicators may have been the excess money supply brought on by COVID era stimulus. We’ve written a blog post about it that you can read here.
With all these variables out there, I like to look at simple things to get an idea of how people are making their way in the current economy. One place to look is the sales results at grocery stores and shopping patterns at Dollar stores. In the January 7, 2026 earnings call for Albertsons, the grocer reported lower end consumers are shopping more frequently for essentials and purchases on each trip are smaller than they were previously. This suggests that cash management is a real concern.
Middle income household purchases were fairly stable but there was a trend of substituting for less expensive items within categories of goods. Upper income households purchasing showed a shift toward more value goods.
When I think about this, it feels like pressure is slowly building across income segments. Is this a sign of economic slowing and pressure on stock market profits?
