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Tech has had a great run. Can it continue? What about commodities? Or both? This newsletter is about what we like in each and their risks in the coming decade. We also outline our thoughts on discipline and how we use discipline to drive our investment philosophy for clients’ long-run benefit. In the next decade, we think discipline will be very important.

Since October, the market has begun to heal from a devastating 2022. The strength of the market is concentrated in a narrow sector and we worry about the rally continuing if the rest of the market doesn’t participate. The news this year through July is all about the rally and the far-reaching impact and consequences of Artificial Intelligence (A.I.). This newsletter looks at both and helps all of us, as investors, think through how to position for success and what to be concerned about.

In this newsletter, we talk about how a Bear market can create a harsh downdraft and expose the foolish, the fraudulent and the passive. Warren Buffet's statement is very true - "you don't know who swimming naked until the tide goes out." The market in 2022 was very difficult with few places to hide. We explore the lingering impact of inflation, rising rates and the potentially crushing Federal debt levels. We conclude with thoughts about what might be attractive investments for the coming years. Also, this is a great newsletter if you want to learn about Mike's great-grandfather and his family store.

The first six months of 2022 have been a very difficult, volatile market with the S&P down nearly 20%. The Federal Reserve completely misjudged the severity of inflation and policy makers missed how such loose monetary policy would adversely impact pricing. This newsletter explores the impact of rate hikes and outlines our defensive rules for navigating Bear markets.

Prices are rising in nearly all aspects of your life and across the economy. We explore the impact inflation has on investors given turmoil in labor markets and global supply chains. In this discussion, we go deeper into our ongoing theme of inflation by looking at how renewable energy contributes to pressure on prices and valuations. Lastly, we remind readers of the soaring valuations of some large cap technology stocks and how to navigate in a world of rising interest rates.

Recent real returns are weak when you take inflation and purchasing power into account. This newsletter continues our discussion of the inflationary aspect of the economic stimulus and explains the potential trading opportunity in commodities.

What happens with more and more and more governmental stimulus? Growth, inflation, unintended consequences? A weaker dollar? Investment in other national economies? We still believe strongly in the innovative strength of the U.S. economy and the potential for growth in the coming years. This newsletter shares our perspective on diversification, risk and opportunity.

Before you read this, check out December 2019. It will help ground you in our feelings about the end of the decade, just a few short weeks before the world changed with the onset of COVID-19. This newsletter explores the themes raised in December 2019 more deeply and raises interesting questions about the impact of a trillion dollars of stimulus on long-run asset values.

The first end of a decade without a recession within that decade and consistently rising markets. What happens when those gains are driven by low interest rates, increased worldwide public and private debt, and lower US Corporate tax rates? What asset classes do we look at and why?

What’s your risk profile? Can you stomach a 20% drop in three months? That’s just what happened in Q4 2018. Your strategy must include a plan to manage through times of extreme market duress – ours do. Learn about some of our defensive strategies and the importance of being comfortable with your asset allocation.

The Crash of 2018 was blistering, especially to some of the large-cap technology stocks. In this newsletter, Mike looks at the crash in context and explains Morgia Wealth Management’s foundation philosophy of “disciplined and careful” investing.

The short-term January and February 2018 10% correction caused us to look at some short-term statistics as they relate to important long-term trends. In this newsletter, key sectors ranging from technology to oil to cryptocurrency to precious metals are discussed in both the near term and how they each relate to long-term trends.

Investing in a rising market, especially when P/E ratios are near historical highs is very difficult. During these times it is important to have a plan and to be decisive about where you think you want your financial life to go. Planning for your needs and the potential impact on future generations is critical. The newsletter closes with a Q&A featuring partner, PJ Banazek.